by VT Markets
Sep 18, 2026
英镑维持在近期低位略上方，英镑/美元在触及 1.3336 后进入盘整。英国8月零售销售好于预期，并扭转了7月的跌势。零售销售总量按月增长 0.5%，市场共识为 -0.2%；7月为 -0.5%。剔除汽车燃油后，销售增长 0.6%，同样高于市场预期的 -0.2%；此前为 -0.9%。该数据公布后，市场对英伦银行在11月加息25个基点的定价概率从 83% 上调至最高约 90%，反映短期收紧预期更为坚挺。
更远期的利率预期仍处于高位，掉期曲线暗示未来12个月仍将加息约 100 个基点至 4.75%。目前 3.75% 的银行利率已接近英伦银行估算的 2% 至 4% 中性区间上限，而整体经济被描述为在产能不足的水平运行，财政政策预计也将趋于更紧。在此背景下，若利率定价转向更鸽派，强劲数据对英镑的支撑可能面临考验。
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