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by VT Markets
Sep 3, 2026
英伦银行首席经济学家胡·皮尔（Huw Pill）表示，决策者应把英伦银行基准利率（Bank Rate）上调至4%，并认为与中东冲突及能源价格相关的不确定性不应成为延后行动的理由。他警告，若选择观望，可能使货币政策落后于形势，让更高的能源成本进一步传导至薪资与国内价格，并在利率设定上形成维持现状偏误（status quo bias）。皮尔也指出，在能源价格走势不明的情况下，要对利率进行微调相当困难。
他表示，把利率上调至4%本身并不意味着将进入一段长期的激进紧缩期，但称尽快上调可限制“追赶式”调整的动态，并通过更清晰的政策沟通帮助引导市场。皮尔质疑“劳动力市场存在闲置将阻止第二轮效应”的观点，并称有理由预期这些效应可能比早期通胀目标制时期更为强烈。
他补充说，伊朗战争并未导致较长期通胀预期“脱锚”，并敦促货币政策委员会（MPC）在阐述其分析框架时，应谨慎避免过度依赖相对极端的“假设情境”（‘what-if’ scenarios）。
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