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by VT Markets
Sep 8, 2026
花旗墨西哥9月预期调查显示，大多数私人经济学家预期墨西哥央行（Banco de México）将维持政策立场不变，基准利率预计至少到2027年底仍维持在6.50%，区间介于6.25%至6.75%。比索料将先温和走强、后转弱：美元兑墨西哥比索（USD/MXN）预计在2026年底为17.50；2027年底共识为18.07，低于上一轮调查的18.24。2026年的通胀预期（总体与核心）均为4%。
增长预测略有上调。预计2026年GDP将增长1.3%（此前为按年增长1.2%），2027年将增长1.8%，与上一轮调查一致，预测区间介于1.0%至2.3%。
墨西哥央行的使命是维护比索价值并将通胀维持在3%目标附近（2%–4%容忍区间的中点），并以利率作为主要政策工具。央行每年召开八次会议，通常在美联储之后约一周举行；美元利差对墨西哥比索走势具有重要影响。
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