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by VT Markets
Sep 11, 2026
波兰国家银行维持政策不变并延续鸽派立场，指出即便通胀回升，也可能无需调整利率至少要等到明年年中。市场观点认为，届时GDP增速走弱应会开始缓解价格压力；在加息预期后移、利差收窄之际，兹罗提仍面临下行风险。
欧元兑兹罗提（EUR/PLN）反弹至4.320–4.330，回到前一交易日区间，鸽派重新定价令利率差距收窄。该货币对预计将测试4.330–4.340；同时，国内利率仅被形容为小幅上行，而能源价格继续主导市场波动。
在延后加息仍为基准情境下，相关措辞料将继续令波兰收益率曲线承压，并可能进一步变陡，尽管波兰已是新兴市场中收益率曲线最陡的国家。
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