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by VT Markets
Sep 3, 2026
周三美国早盘交易时段，美元/日元在触及160.39（近五周高位）后回落逾1%，并再次未能守住心理关口160。日元突然走强引发市场猜测日本或再度出手干预——此前汇价多次测试160后，市场对干预的联想升温，而上一轮干预前的起点大约在164附近。与此同时，日本央行官员措辞转趋鹰派，强调在通胀风险上升之际应迅速采取行动支撑走弱日元，进一步强化市场对最早可能在本月加息的预期。
该货币对一度下探至158.20，随后反弹并回到158.42上方；此水平与155.22–160.39这波升势的38.2%斐波那契回撤位，以及200日均线相呼应。日线技术面有所转弱，RSI下滑至50下方，14日动能指标转为负值；若持续跌破158.42，或指向进一步下行。反观任何反弹，市场认为上方将受限于159.17（对应23.6%斐波那契水平与20日均线）。阻力位看159.17、159.35、159.59及160.00；支撑位则在158.42、158.05、157.81及157.20。
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