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by VT Markets
Sep 21, 2026
日元在日本央行将政策利率上调25个基点至1.25%（逾三十年来最高水平）后走弱，原因是对进一步正常化节奏的指引有限。该决议以7比2通过。尽管行长植田和男表示潜在通胀正接近2%，并形容货币政策进入“新阶段”，他同时强调需要避免金融环境过快收紧，并指出明年春斗将是检验工资—物价联动的关键测试；不过，他也未排除连续加息或更大幅度行动的可能性。
短期内，日元交易预计仍将对美债（UST）—日债（JGB）收益率利差高度敏感；此外，日本从周一至周三的假期导致流动性偏薄，可能放大外汇波动。美元/日元上一次收盘约在156.90，阶段性阻力位于156.70–157.00区间，与21日均线（21 DMA）重合。更上方阻力在158，其后是100日均线（100 DMA）所在的158.40，以及50日均线（50 DMA）附近的159；支撑则关注155与约153一带。与此同时，更坚挺的通胀与工资、干预风险，或资金回流（repatriation）等因素，可能成为限制美元/日元下行空间的潜在约束。
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