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by VT Markets
Sep 4, 2026
日元在最近几个交易日走强，推动美元/日元回落至155.00附近的支撑位。该水平今年已多次守住，包括在4月下旬/5月上旬以及7月下旬/8月上旬的波动之后。这一次，市场更倾向将走势解读为基本面驱动而非干预因素：日本央行收紧政策的预期升温，同时财政政策相关担忧仍是焦点。
市场定价已转向押注日本央行本月加息，相关报道指向加息25个基点（bps），而此前关于一次性加息50个基点的讨论热度降温。衍生品显示，市场预期年底前累计收紧幅度接近50个基点，至明年年中则略高于75个基点，节奏略快于预测（后者普遍预期进一步加息合计约75个基点）。
日元也受益于市场再度揣测日本政府养老金投资基金（GPIF）可能将资产配置倾向国内资产，此举将有助减少资金外流。
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