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by VT Markets
Oct 19, 2026
周一欧洲早盘，美元/日元在158.00附近基本持平，尽管美国通胀走强，但交易员削减了对美联储加息的预期。周五将公布的日本全国CPI数据成为市场关注焦点。日本央行行长植田和男表示，基础通胀“相当接近”2%的目标，并援引紧俏的就业市场以及全球AI需求强劲；他同时指出，以适当的节奏上调利率有助于避免债券收益率出现急剧上升。市场普遍预期日本央行将把政策利率维持在1.25%，同时保留最早于12月上调至1.5%的空间；下一次会议将于2026年10月30日结束。
上周五在曼谷举行的IMF年会期间，美联储主席凯文·沃什未就政策前景提供指引。联邦基金利率期货显示，市场认为在10月28日举行的下一次为期两天的会议上维持利率不变的概率为83.9%。另外，有一项指标将植田的讲话“鹰派程度”评为7/10，低于7.4/10的平均水平。
从技术面看，美元/日元仍处于100日SMA下方，RSI报52.35；阻力位分别位于158.85和159.45附近，而支撑位在158.00和157.10一带。
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