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by VT Markets
Oct 16, 2026
美国将于11月3日举行中期选举。过去两年，美国经历了贸易保护主义抬头、对联邦储备局独立性的施压，并自今年春季以来爆发伊朗战争。共和党料将遭遇沉重选举挫败，而民主党预计将大幅斩获席位；在通胀上升与利率走高加剧可负担性危机之际，宏观经济背景已明显恶化。
对市场而言，关键在于选举结果将如何塑造财政政策走向，尤其是在美债遭遇广泛抛售、推动收益率升至数十年高位的背景下。上述组合因素预计将令市场对“选举驱动”的财政预期审视更为严格，市场反应幅度进一步放大的风险上升，外汇市场亦可能受波及。
迄今选前紧张情绪迹象有限：欧元/美元1个月隐含波动率在9月下旬走高，但这更多被归因于主权债市更广泛的波动，而非政治因素。与此同时，近几周美债仍大幅下跌，主要与通胀担忧相关；标普500指数则在本月进一步刷新历史新高。
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