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by VT Markets
Oct 14, 2026
标普500指数徘徊在历史高位附近，但市场广度疲弱：年初至今多数成分股录得下跌，只有少数大型科技股支撑以市值加权计算的指数。这样的集中度使基准指数对龙头股一旦反转更为敏感；隔夜以科技股为主的韩国与日本股市出现抛售，也进一步强化了这一点。文中框架将这种脆弱性与艾略特波浪情境选择联系起来，并将明日公布的CPI报告定位为近期最关键的催化剂，可能迫使市场向任一方向重新定价。
在标普期货（ES）方面，价格在7,900下方停滞，市场优先采用另一套艾略特波浪计数：看空平台型整理（A-B-C）延伸为第2浪；并将7,835标注为进一步下行的触发位。
欧元/美元受债券抛售引发的收益率走高拖累而下行，在出现末端楔形（ending diagonal）后，汇价进入吸筹区间；路线图倾向先走第4浪下跌，并再创第5浪新低，之后反弹上看1.1300。油价维持偏多：在完成三浪B浪回调后，目标指向突破95并回升至100附近。
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