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by VT Markets
Oct 12, 2026
美元连续第四周录得周线涨幅，并重回18个月前的水平，因为市场重新定价美联储在第四季度进一步收紧政策的概率。油价走高强化了通胀担忧，而法国财政疑虑再起也拖累欧元兑美元跌至17个月低位。相较之下，美债收益率从近期峰值回落、各期限收益率普遍走低，但美元指数（DXY）仍升破102.50，并成功站上其200周简单移动平均线。市场焦点现转向下周的通胀数据发布，同时关注消费者支出数据以及主席沃什（Warsh）的讲话。
市场基本已淡化对9月非农就业仅+2.9万人的反应，维持“10月不加息”的预期，但仍偏向于在12月加息25个基点。9月15–16日会议的FOMC会议纪要显示，委员一致支持加息25个基点，并认为通胀风险偏向上行、劳动力市场接近充分就业；纪要亦提及AI投资带来的需求上行风险。
持仓数据显示，美元净多头增至接近1.19万张合约；四周变动改善至-5,144（前值-8,352），未平仓合约上升至略高于4.83万张；投机性敞口为24.6%，其分位数为45.5，净持仓分位数为48.2。
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