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by VT Markets
Oct 12, 2026
新元整体维持稳定，即使美元走强、油价上升；市场对新加坡金融管理局（MAS）可能收紧政策的预期，持续为新元名义有效汇率（S$NEER）提供支撑。美元/新元（USD/SGD）一直在近期高位附近、约1.28水平交易；技术面信号显示多头动能仍在，而RSI则持平。阻力位分别在1.2820（100日均线）以及1.2840（38.2%斐波那契回撤位）；支撑位落在1.2740/50区间，结合了2026年低点至高点走势的61.8%回撤位与50日均线。
由于S$NEER已处于政策区间的偏强一侧，若MAS进一步上调政策坡度，或将强化中期偏向升值的趋势，但在美元转强的情况下，未必能带来新元兑美元的进一步升值。若MAS维持政策不变，报告指出此举可能不及市场预期，并使S$NEER回落并向区间中点漂移；同时，USD/SGD仍对更广泛的美元走势、美国利率以及短期情绪变化高度敏感。
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