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by VT Markets
Sep 28, 2026
道明证券（TD Securities）的经济学家表示，随着近期央行官员言论维持鹰派、并持续释放进一步收紧政策的信号，10月美联储加息的可能性正变得更高。他们指出，PCE通胀信号依然坚挺，ISM制造业数据也录得温和回升；不过9月非农就业（NFP）数据偏软、失业率走高，使得政策预期仍取决于通胀是否降温，以及劳动力市场能否继续站稳。
在其展望中，PCE通胀预计为：总体环比（m/m）0.38%、同比（y/y）3.8%；核心PCE预计为：环比0.32%、同比3.4%。市场关注点也将集中在美国经济分析局（BEA）的年度修订。该机构同时预测，继零售销售强劲之后，个人支出增速将达0.9%，按实际（剔除通胀）口径则为0.5%。
该经济学家团队预计美联储还将额外加息两次，分别暂定在10月与明年1月；具体时点与幅度将由后续通胀数据表现以及劳动力市场的韧性所引导。
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