by VT Markets
Sep 15, 2026
周末过后能源价格跳涨、美国10年期国债收益率升至5%以及美元走强，对中东欧市场造成压力，拖累区域货币走弱，并迫使本地利率曲线各期限出现明显重定价。在CEE3市场中，前端利率市场平均额外计入10-20个基点的加息空间。尽管短期内市场预期“避险”（risk-off）环境仍将持续，但短端利率上移被视为可能为外汇提供缓冲。
在此背景下，EUR/CZK在捷克央行（CNB）议息会议前被认为将围绕24.300水平运行；若央行立场较市场定价更偏鸽派，汇价仍有进一步上行空间。
EUR/PLN利差录得区域内最大升幅；尽管货币政策委员会（MPC）发表鸽派言论，但市场认为在波兰央行（NBP）决议后，兹罗提有望在4.340以下企稳。在匈牙利方面，EUR/HUF被形容为对天然气价格敏感度较高；市场仍大致计入一次降息预期，且在匈牙利央行（NBH）会议前，汇价可能再度测试368上方水平。
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