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by VT Markets
Sep 10, 2026
EUR/USD 在9月初小幅走高，并在欧洲央行（ECB）政策更新前，重新站上约 1.1635 的 200日均线。此番上行主要受到欧洲收益率对夏季能源价格上涨反应更为强烈，以及市场对 ECB 偏鹰立场的定价所支撑。市场几乎已完全计入 12月前再度加息一次的可能性，这也意味着若要出现新的偏鹰意外，门槛将更高。
市场焦点在于 ECB 是否暗示在下一步行动之后仍将进一步收紧，因为该前瞻指引预计将主导欧元的市场反应。若本轮周期再加息第二次，将使政策利率升向 ECB 估算的中性利率区间上沿（1.75%–2.50%），而市场同时仍担忧通胀的“二次效应”。
利率方面，近期分化仍在延续：美国2年期国债收益率上升约 4 个基点（bps），而欧洲收益率对能源价格更为敏感，帮助该汇价在近月维持温和上行趋势。
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