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by VT Markets
Sep 7, 2026
中东欧将迎来密集的经济数据与政策事件，首先是捷克与匈牙利公布7月工业生产数据。匈牙利8月通胀在经历数月通胀放缓后，预计将从1.2%小幅回升至1.4%。波兰国家银行（NBP）预计会将政策利率维持在3.75%，土耳其央行也被视为按兵不动、维持在37%。罗马尼亚8月通胀预计将由8.2%（同比）降至6.5%，尽管月度价格涨幅加快，但主要仍受基数效应带动。
随后焦点转向沟通限制与市场定价。捷克央行（CNB）将于周四进入静默期（blackout period），预计此前会有央行董事会成员的相关评论。上周在全球环境趋于宽松之际，区域利率走高；但市场仍计入捷克与波兰各约80个基点（bp）的收紧预期。若出现进一步重新定价，将压缩利差并可能对中东欧（CEE）货币造成压力；市场认为欧元/捷克克朗（EUR/CZK）有回升至24.250以上的风险，而若NBP维持偏鸽立场，欧元/波兰兹罗提（EUR/PLN）也倾向走高。
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