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by VT Markets
Aug 18, 2026
黄金正从市场预期中获得支撑：在美国通胀与就业数据走软后，美联储可能在今年剩余时间维持利率不变。该观点也与收益率曲线短端趋稳及美元走弱的叙事相呼应，促使资金管理人增加黄金的多头敞口；同时，部分仓位仍保留下行对冲，以防油价驱动的政策冲击。
不过，短期上行空间仍受限于与中东紧张局势相关的能源价格波动，波斯湾地区的敌对行动令供应路线暴露在风险之中。若油价飙升，可能重新点燃通胀担忧，并促使市场重新定价，押注今年及明年的联邦基金利率更高。
TD Securities 预计，这些因素将令黄金价格在2027年初之前维持区间震荡，介于每盎司4,200至4,500美元之间；随着通胀压力缓解，2027年稍后存在进一步走高的空间。
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