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by VT Markets
Aug 17, 2026
澳洲周三将公布第二季薪资价格指数（Wage Price Index），周四则公布7月劳动力调查（Labour Force Survey）；预计这些数据将大致维持市场对澳洲储备银行（RBA）利率前景的预期不变。薪资预计连续第三个季度按季上涨0.8%（q/q），而按年增速预计从第一季的3.3%（y/y）小幅放缓至3.2%。就业增长预测为+1.2万人，低于6月的+7.63万人；失业率预计连续第三个月维持在4.4%。
市场定价显示，RBA仍有空间再进行一次行动，但并未完全反映出持续收紧的路径。RBA现金利率期货显示，市场认为年底前最后一次加息25个基点（bps）的概率为60%，这将把现金利率推高至4.60%。
即便如此，澳元（AUD）仍持续获得支撑，主要来自有利的利差套息（carry）环境，以及澳洲与能源相关的大宗商品敞口，和与人工智能（AI）及国防相关联的产业链表现。
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