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by VT Markets
Aug 10, 2026
日本银行在7月30日至31日会议的《意见摘要》显示，政策委员在“暂停以评估最新加息影响”与“继续收紧政策设置”之间出现分歧。有观点强调，政策调整传导至通胀与经济活动大约需要1年至1年半；而另一个观点则认为当前金融环境仍足够宽松，支持进一步加息。另有意见指出，随着通胀上行风险累积，收紧步伐最终可能快于市场预期。
委员们认为日本经济正在温和复苏，但同时受到不同因素拉扯：中东紧张局势压制经济活动之际，与AI相关的需求提供一定抵消；日元走弱则被形容为带来“利弊参半”的影响。他们表示，基础CPI通胀预计将在2026财年下半年至2027财年期间大致与物价稳定目标一致，同时指出中东局势、AI需求以及日元偏弱构成通胀上行压力。报告发布后，美元兑日元（USD/JPY）维持温和日内涨幅，徘徊在158.00附近。日本银行的政策使命是将通胀维持在约2%；自2013年实施量化质化宽松（QQE），2016年加入负利率与10年期收益率曲线控制，并于2024年3月启动加息。
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