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What Is the Next Step in the Russia-Ukraine Conflict?

February 17, 2022

Global uncertainty has intensified because of the danger of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Given the possibility of an invasion on Wednesday, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken ordered the closure of the US Embassy in Kyiv to temporarily relocate to Lviv, a city in western Ukraine on Monday.

Source: CNN

The drama surrounding the buildup of soldiers on the Russian-Ukrainian border has prompted market participants to seek a safe-haven, put pressure on the stock market due to the high-risk element, and pushed world oil prices back up to $95/barrel.

Source: MT4, CL-OIL-ECN, Daily from VT Markets

Market are awaiting word on whether the invasion will occur tomorrow or whether the Russian military exercises are only a protest against the US plans to create a military base in Ukraine. Russia’s capital, Moscow, will not be secured if Ukraine joins NATO, as it is too close to a planned military facility in Ukraine.

There are divergent perspectives among world leaders:

Soheil Al-Mazrouei, the UAE’s Minister of Energy, stated that a Russian invasion of Ukraine is improbable.

On Monday, the UK Prime Minister warned that an attack on Ukraine might occur within 48 hours.

However, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s response was as follows: “We are threatened with war, and they have set a date for a major invasion.” However, he noted that this is not the first time, and their intelligence agencies are aware of Russian forces’ actions.

Similarly, there is a statement from the Russian side, in which the Kremlin dismisses US warnings of an impending strike as “hysteria” and “absurdity”.

According to recent developments, Russia has ordered the departure of its forces.

This uncertainty may result in significant fluctuation in certain pairs.

Our risk team is monitoring closely and would like to remind our investors to brace for more market volatility in the days and weeks ahead especially in oil and gold related products.

Oil and Gold prices will be the most impacted in the coming weeks.

Source: MT4, XAUUSD-ECN, Daily from VT Markets