Daily market analysis

July 30, 2021

Daily Market Analysis

Market Focus

US equities rose toward all-time highs as the latest read on the economy eased concerns about inflation and the Federal Reserve scaling back its ultra-accommodative policies. Amid risk-off sentiments, all of the main American stock indexes advanced, with S&P 500 (+18.51) and Dow Jones (+153.60, or 0.44%) touching records. Ford Motor Co. rallied after a surprise profit. Facebook Inc. weighed on Nasdaq (+15.68, or 0.11%) after the social-media company gave a cautious outlook. And Amazon.com Inc. fell in extended trading after its sales forecast fell short, pulling futures in the Nasdaq lower.

It was supposed to be a triumph for today’s memeified markets — a validation for all those amateurs who took on the Wall Street pros. The public debut for Robinhood Markets Inc. turned out to be an embarrassment for the company that’s become synonymous with the rise of individual investors. Robinhood traders, it turned out, had no time for Robinhood.

In fact, some of the very people who flocked to the firm’s free-trading app to buy meme stocks like GameStop Corp. and AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc. this year appeared to take glee Thursday as the company’s share price slid. Reddit’s WallStreetBets forum, a hotbed of retail traders, lit up. One top post: “Is it me or does anyone else get pleasure from watching Robinhood’s stock burn to the ground?”

Almost nothing seemed to go right for Robinhood, whose decision to briefly freeze trading at the height of the meme-stock frenzy in January drew scorn from its own customers. The stock was priced late Wednesday at the low end of its expected range. Then investors saw red instead of green: shares almost immediately dropped after trading opened, tumbling as much as 12%. Robinhood eventually pared the worst of the decline, falling 8.4% to close at $34.82.

  

Main Pairs Movement:

Dollar slid yet another day and reached freshly lows against most major rivals, as US data missed the consensus estimates. 21Q2 GDP showed the economy grew at an annualized pace of 6.5%, better than the previous 6.4%, although missing the 8.6% expected. Also, Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended July 23 printed at 400K, worse than anticipated.

The euro pair settles around 1.1890 while Cable approaches the 1.4000 figure. The commodity-linked currencies were strong on Thursday, with Loonie traded lower at 1.2440, Aussie hiked on the 0.7400 level, and Kiwi flirted with the 0.7000 milestone. The Japanese yen appreciated on the back of a better market’s mood, with USD/JPY trading around 109.40.

US government bond yields ticked higher, closing the day at 1.2710. Gold jumped to $1,832.62 a troy ounce, its highest in two weeks, while crude oil prices also reached fresh highs, with WTI ending the day at $73.40 a barrel, Brent at $75.80.

currencies are still in their upward trend driven by Tesla’s June quarter earnings, which showed that it holds $1.3 billion worth of Bitcoin. BTC then keep soaring after speculation that Amazon may soon start accepting payments in Bitcoin, Ether and other currencies. Bitcoin and Ethereum gained nearly 40% against US dollar in two weeks, showed by the data from Binance.

   

Technical Analysis:

GBPUSD (4-hour Chart)

Sterling has reached the fresh high in near month at 1.3981, supported by fall in coronavirus cases in U.K. and the dovish rhetoric from the Fed’s chairman. So far, the market still digesting the optimistc traction for risk on mode. For technical aspect, RSI indicator close around 71 figure which suggest strong-bull guideline over mire into over bought sentiment already, suggesting for more cautious to currently market trend. For moving average side, 15 long SMA indicator continuing it ascending momentum and 60 long SMA indicator remaining upway traction.

As price action, sterling was suppressed by critical resistance at 1.3985, last high price level. For now, bid side buyer should aware the immediately support 1.3896 level. On lift side, if sterling could breakthrough 1.3985 again, it could heading to 1.4 threshold.

Resistance: 1,3985, 1.4

Support: 1.3665, 1.3745, 1.3896

       

XAUUSD (4- Hour Chart)

Gold is picking up more than 1% to 1829 around on Thursday, despite easing from the monthly top. Heavily rebounded of the gold prices amid to the poor dollar performance and broad optimistic sentiment in the market while TIPS countinuing go down, 10 year U.S. Treasuries yield as well. From the technical perspective, RSI indicator clost at 70 figures as of writing, suggesting over bought sentiment at current stage. For moving average side, 15 long SMA indicator shows turn it slope to north side and golden cross with 60 long SMA while it retain flat.

All in all, we witness the strong gold movement in the daily market, yet resist by pivotal resistance at 1830 which is last high point. However, instant indicator shows a remix suggestion as over bouht sentiment on RSI, contrastly, SMA suggest a bull signal at the moment. For upper side, we expect next resistance will be psychological level on 1840.

Resistance: 1830.5, 1840

Support: 1795, 1765.5, 1811

        

EURUSD (4- Hour Chart)

Aussie topped to 0.7413, the perch in nearly two weeks, but tamp down under 0.74 threshold as of writing. Higher shares market, gold and commodities market underpin the pair. On the other hands, market still worried about the governor decided to extend Sydney lockdown and the implicationss this will have for next week’s RBA meeting. For technical side, RSI indicator set 60 figure that gain another higher stage in recent, suggesting have a room for upward. For moving average perspective, 15 long SMA indicator turn it momentum to upside traction and 60 long SMA still flirting. Furthermore, 2 lines has golden cross that shows a strong signal for upside traction.

In light of aforementional, we expect market will continue to test the 0.7415 level which is a immediately resistance. If it could penetrate first resistance, it would toward to next consolidation between 0.7416 and 0.7492 range. For downside, a efficient immediately support will be 0.7384, 0.73 will be way off following.

Resistance: 0.7415, 0.7492

Support: 0.7384, 0.73

       

Economic Data

Currency

Data

Time (GMT + 8)

Forecast

EUR

German GDP (QoQ)(Q2)

16:00

2%

EUR

CPI (YoY)(Jul)

17:00

2%

CAD

GDP (MoM)(May)

20:30

-0.3%