Daily market analysis

April 21, 2021
   

Daily Market Analysis

Market Focus

U.S. stocks fell for a second day as rising virus cases around the world led to renewed concern over the continued economic impact, overshadowing a batch of solid corporate results.

The S&P 500 extended its slide from an all-time high, with investors showing caution ahead of the brunt of the earnings season. All eyes will be on whether an anticipated rise in profits will bring with it forecasts for stronger growth ahead. International Business Machines Corp. climbed after reporting its largest revenue growth in 11 quarters, while United Airlines Holdings Inc. paced a selloff in travel stocks on a bigger-than-expected loss. Netflix Inc. plunged in post market trading as its first-quarter subscriber growth fell short of the average analyst estimate.

While American equities are trading at a valuation that’s about 35% above the average of the past decade, investors are focused on what’s forecast to be the best earnings season in two years. One of their biggest concerns is whether companies are equipped to handle mounting inflation pressures as the economic recovery gains momentum.

Elsewhere, the dollar rose for the first time in seven sessions, while the Treasury 10-year yield dropped to the lowest level in more than five weeks.

           

Main Pairs Movement:

A gauge of the dollar snapped a six-day losing streak on Tuesday as commodity currencies slipped along with crude oil after a U.S. House committee cleared a bill that opens OPEC to Justice Department antitrust lawsuits.

USD/CAD rose as much as 0.6% to 1.2613, breaching its 55-DMA as it eyes the April 13 high of 1.2629; it was the pair’s biggest intraday gain in almost five weeks. Weakness in the loonie comes ahead of a Bank of Canada policy meeting Wednesday. The euro also slipped after a poll showed the German Green party taking a seven-point lead over Chancellor Angela Merkel’s conservative bloc.

AUD/USD fell by as much as 0.5% to 0.7719 after earlier climbing as much as 0.7% to 0.7816. Move may have been partly driven by profit-taking and put demand. Other than this, NZD/USD slid 0.2% to 0.7173 as commodity currencies backed down in U.S. trading, erasing an early advance of as much as 0.6%.

          

Technical Analysis:

EURUSD (4 Hour Chart)

Euro dollar ebbed a little as it bull move amid sterling correction that drive dollar pick up, currently trading at 1.2036. At the current stage, market still move along with in upper side of 15-long SMA while 60-long SMA retain it ascending trend. Moreover, RSI indicator show a bullish signal as it set at 61.3 figures. Integrity above perspective, we foresee the market will supress by first resisitance at 1.2106 level, therefore, remaining a room for north side. For next check point, we need to ensure will market stand firmly above the 1.199 level where obviously a neckline of bottom pattern.

Resistance: 1.2071, 1.2106

Support: 1.199, 1.192, 1.1877

          

GPBUSD (4 Hour Chart)

Sterling wrong-foot correction in daily market lead it loss 0.32%, trading at 1.3941, after yesterday coup movement which aslo induced dollar index binge. Absolutely, it is seemingly impeded by pyhcological resistance at 1.4 level. On the other hands, RSI indicator also cold down from torrid overbought territory while it slip to 62 figure , still suggesting a bullish guidance at least for short term. Furtonutely, both 15 and 60-long SMAs indicator are still on acending path.

All of all, we expect market will remain the bullish movement for long term but short run is more likelihood of consolidation move. Therefore, bull side should entrench the first support level on 1.39 which also considered a neckline of W pattern. On contrast, we see there lack of an effective upper boundary expect for the 1.4 level which suffocated by two-month-long upside price cluster resistance.

Resistance: 1.4, 1.3959

Support: 1.39, 1.3822, 1.3796

             

XAUUSD (4 Hour Chart)

Gold inverted yesterday move that turn back on the bullish trajecctory, trading at day high $1777.7. On technical side, RSI indicator trading at 60.7 figure which suggest a bullish momentum for short term. At the meantime, 15 and 60-long SMAs indicator are both remaining upward trend. For price action perspective, after penetrated 1759.7 level, gold seemingly situate a solid prosperity. Therefore, we expect there still have window for pick up side. On upper side, we see phycological figure at 1800 will be the first critical resistance. If retain movement furtther, next resistance eyes on 1812.8. On lower side, 1759.7 still be the first barrier where is the shoulder of double bottom.

Resistance: 1800.7, 1812.8

Support: 1759.7, 1754.5, 1722.75

              

Economic Data

Currency

Data

Time (GMT + 8)

Forecast

NZD

CPI (QoQ)(Q1)

06:45

0.7%

AUD

Retail Sales (MoM)

09:30

GBP

CPI (YoY)(Mar)

14:00

0.8%

GBP

BoE Gov Bailey Speaks

18:30

CAD

Core CPI (MoM)(Mar)

20:30

CAD

BoC Monetary Policy Report

22:00

CAD

BoC Interest Rate Decision

22:00

0.25%

USD

Crude Oil Inventories

22:30

-2.975 M

CAD

BoC Press Conference

23:00