Insights 
VT 
Key Points
- WTI retreats as markets refocus on rising US crude inventories.
- Temporary outages in Kazakhstan offer only limited support to prices.
West Texas Intermediate crude prices moved lower in early Wednesday trade, with markets looking past a short-term supply disruption in Kazakhstan and refocusing on broader macro and inventory pressures.
WTI for March slipped 1.3% to $59.57 per barrel, reversing part of the previous session’s rebound.
The pullback reflects growing caution that an expected build in US crude inventories will reinforce the view that supply remains ample, even as isolated disruptions emerge elsewhere.
Kazakhstan Outages Seen as Temporary
Oil prices had found brief support earlier this week after Kazakhstan temporarily halted output at the Tengiz and Korolev oilfields due to power distribution issues.
The two fields, among the country’s largest, could remain offline for another 7–10 days, according to industry sources.
However, the market response has been muted. The shutdown is widely viewed as temporary, limiting its ability to tighten global supply materially.
As a result, traders have been reluctant to chase prices higher, especially with inventories and demand concerns back in focus.
Inventories and Geopolitics Take Centre Stage
Attention has shifted to US stockpiles, with a Reuters poll indicating that crude and gasoline inventories likely rose last week, while distillate stocks may have declined.
Confirmation from the EIA data due Thursday could reinforce downside pressure if builds come in larger than expected.
Geopolitical uncertainty also remains a headwind. President Donald Trump’s renewed insistence on US control over Greenland, alongside threats of tariffs on European nations, has revived concerns over global growth and energy demand.
These risks weigh sentiment, particularly as oil markets remain sensitive to any slowdown in consumption.
Technical Analysis
WTI crude oil (CL-OIL-ECN) is currently trading at 59.804, up 0.54%, as it attempts to recover from the earlier low of 58.714.
After peaking at 60.494, the price pulled back in a controlled fashion, forming a mild descending channel.
It’s now consolidating near short-term resistance, with a slight upward bias in the 15-minute chart.
Moving averages are converging, with MA5 and MA10 beginning to flatten just under MA20 and MA30, suggesting indecision in short-term direction.
The volume has decreased from earlier spikes, indicating a reduced momentum.
A break above 60.00 could reignite bullish interest, but failure to hold above the 59.60 zone may invite renewed selling pressure. Bulls are cautiously probing for higher ground, but confirmation is still pending.
Outlook
While supply disruptions can generate short-lived rallies, the broader picture still points to comfortable supply conditions and uncertainty around demand.
Unless inventory data surprises to the downside or geopolitical risks escalate meaningfully, WTI is likely to remain range-bound, with rallies continuing to attract selling interest rather than fresh momentum buying.
