Insights 
VT 
Key Points:
- Yen rises to 143.60 against the dollar amid global trade jitters and upcoming US-China talks.
- BoJ minutes hint at possible rate hikes if economic forecasts hold, though risks remain.
The Japanese yen strengthened to 143.60 per dollar on Thursday, recovering from earlier losses as geopolitical uncertainty spurred renewed interest in safe-haven currencies. The move came in response to President Donald Trump’s latest remarks, including a planned news conference to announce a trade deal with a “big” country—widely speculated to be the United Kingdom.
While the announcement provided a modest boost to broader risk sentiment, the yen saw upside traction after Trump reaffirmed that tariffs on Chinese imports would remain in place during preliminary trade talks. The firm stance from Washington has injected caution into markets ahead of US-China negotiations scheduled in Switzerland this weekend.
Domestically, the Bank of Japan’s meeting minutes offered a hawkish tilt, with some policymakers expressing readiness to raise interest rates if inflation and growth projections remain intact. However, other members cited growing concerns over external shocks, particularly from evolving US trade policy, as reasons for caution.
Meanwhile, bilateral US-Japan trade negotiations are also back in focus, with Tokyo pushing to finalise a framework agreement by June. Any deal here could impact Japan’s export-driven economy and influence monetary policy timelines.
Technical Analysis
USDJPY edged higher after bouncing from the 142.35 support zone, with price peaking at 144.00 before consolidating into a tight range. The short-term moving averages (5/10 EMA) crossed above the 30-period MA during the upward move, supporting bullish momentum through the early Asian session. However, MACD histogram bars are now fading and the signal lines are curling downward—suggesting waning momentum near the psychological 144.00 resistance.
Picture: USDJPY rebounds from 142.35 and taps 144.00, but momentum cools as price stalls beneath resistance, as seen on the VT Markets app
With price holding above the 30-MA and support near 143.45, bulls may still attempt a breakout, though a drop below that level could trigger a corrective pullback toward the 143.10–142.85 region.
Cautious Forecast
The yen may continue to attract inflows if trade tensions persist, potentially pushing USD/JPY back toward the 143.00 handle. However, dovish BoJ hesitation and improving US data could limit gains. A confirmed breakout above 144.00 would open the door to further dollar strength toward 145.20, while a break below 143.00 could trigger deeper yen bullishness.
