Insights 
VT 
Key Points
- U.S. 10-year Treasury futures fell to 109.87 before stabilising at 110.03 after the court’s tariff block.
- Yields rose as much as 4.4 bps to 4.523% as risk appetite returned and safe-haven demand receded.
The U.S. 10-Year Treasury note weakened during Thursday’s Asian session, with futures hitting an intraday low of 109.87 before rebounding modestly to 110.03 at the time of writing. Yields climbed sharply after the Court of International Trade halted President Donald Trump’s proposed “Liberation Day” tariffs, triggering a reallocation of capital from bonds to equities.
The yield on the benchmark 10-year note surged as much as 4.4 bps to 4.523%, before easing slightly to 4.497% by 02:30 GMT. Two-year yields saw a sharper move, climbing 6 bps to 4.052%, while 30-year yields touched 4.999%, tracking longer-dated concerns over debt sustainability.
Equity markets rallied on the news, with S&P 500 futures rising 1.7%, while the dollar strengthened against safe-haven currencies — gaining 0.6% vs the yen and 0.7% vs the Swiss franc. Gold dropped 0.8%, reflecting the rapid unwind of defensive positioning.
While the ruling initially lifted sentiment, it may have opened new risks. The Trump administration immediately appealed the decision, setting the stage for a drawn-out legal battle that could see tariffs head to the Supreme Court. With the policy outcome back in limbo, volatility is likely to remain elevated.
Markets are also beginning to price in the implications of Trump’s $3.8 trillion tax-and-spending bill, which the CBO warns could push total federal debt beyond $36.2 trillion over the next decade. That has already fuelled the steady climb in long-term yields this month — and Thursday’s tariff pause adds to concerns that planned revenue from trade levies could now be in jeopardy.
Technical Analysis
USNote10Y dipped to a session low of 109.87 before rebounding modestly toward the 110.06–110.10 resistance band. The intraday recovery followed a clear bearish move from the 110.54 high, where prices broke below the short-term moving averages and triggered a MACD bearish crossover. Price remains below the 30-MA, and the current uptick appears corrective unless bulls can retake 110.25.
Picture: US 10Y futures rebound off 109.87 low, but gains capped under 110.10; cautious tone persists below 30-MA, as seen on the VT Markets app
MACD momentum is recovering with a bullish crossover, but histogram bars are still shallow. The structure suggests cautious upside, with traders watching whether the recovery stalls again near the 110.10 mark or continues toward 110.25.
Cautious Forecast
The yield curve remains vulnerable to further steepening if fiscal deficit fears intensify. While technical support near 109.85–109.90 may cushion further downside in futures short-term, rallies back toward 110.30–110.40 could face resistance unless there is clarity on tariff appeals or progress on budget negotiations. Caution remains warranted as legal and fiscal uncertainties begin to converge.
