Insights 
VT 
Key Points:
- SP500 closed at 5509.88, slipping 0.17% amid cautious trade.
- Traders await U.S. Q1 GDP data Wednesday; risk of negative growth flagged.
- Treasury Secretary Bessent downplays Trump’s tariff negotiation claims.
- Tech giants Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, Apple report earnings midweek.
After last week’s tentative rally, U.S. stocks wobbled on Monday as traders grappled with the lingering fallout from President Donald Trump’s tariff threats and a fragile economic backdrop. The SP500 drifted lower, closing near 5509, as the market cautiously positioned ahead of critical data and corporate earnings.
Despite recent signs of easing trade tensions, anxiety persists. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent clarified that no formal talks with China are underway, walking back Trump’s earlier assertions and adding to policy confusion.
Meanwhile, traders remain unnerved by political signals after weeks of Trump attacking, then retracting criticism of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.
Macro Focus
Attention now shifts sharply to U.S. first-quarter GDP data due Wednesday. Economists forecast a slim 0.4% growth, down from 2.4% the previous quarter. However, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model still warns of a potential contraction, heightening fears of an imminent technical recession.
Adding to the mix, over 40% of SP500 companies are set to report earnings this week. Particularly critical are results from the so-called “Magnificent Seven” tech stocks: Microsoft, Meta, Apple, and Amazon. Their forward guidance will likely shape broader sentiment into May.
Technical Analysis
SP500 is holding within a tight consolidation band after a recent bounce from the 5493.75 support area. Price is now hovering around 5509.88, showing resilience despite overall market hesitation. The moving averages (5, 10, 30) have flattened out, reflecting a neutral, sideways trend as buyers and sellers reach a temporary equilibrium.
Picture: SP500 consolidates near recent highs, with buyers cautiously defending key support, see on the VT Markets app
Meanwhile, the MACD is gradually recovering from earlier bearish momentum but remains close to the zero line, suggesting a lack of strong conviction either way. A break above 5537.45 could trigger further upside toward 5560, while failure to hold 5490 risks a deeper pullback.
The short-term outlook is neutral with a bullish bias, provided the current support levels hold firm.
Markets remain vulnerable to unexpected tariff headlines, weaker GDP prints, or disappointing tech earnings. The cautious undertone suggests traders are bracing for potential shocks rather than chasing risk.
Until clarity emerges around growth resilience and trade policies, the SP500 could remain trapped within a choppy, nervous range.
