Key Points

• The SP500 peaked at 5934.70 on Wednesday after rebounding from a low of 5855.05, with technical indicators showing consolidation ahead of a key earnings catalyst.
• Nvidia is forecast to report a 66.2% revenue surge to $43.28 billion, with markets bracing for a potential breakout or pullback depending on the results.

The S&P 500 index hovered just below 5930 on Wednesday, trading flat after an earlier recovery from a low of 5855.05, as traders took a cautious stance ahead of Nvidia’s closely anticipated earnings report. The 15-minute chart shows price action tapering into a narrow range between 5922 and 5934 in recent sessions, with momentum indicators like the MACD showing a softening of upward drive.

After Tuesday’s rally, which saw Nvidia shares jump over 4% on expectations of strong AI-driven results, sentiment in equity markets grew tentative. Traders are now watching for confirmation that Nvidia can deliver on lofty expectations — LSEG consensus data suggests a 66.2% rise in first-quarter revenue, to $43.28 billion.

In broader markets, U.S. consumer confidence posted a surprise upside reading, helping support the dollar and adding pressure to equity multiples as bond yields stabilised. The dollar index rose another 0.25%, extending Tuesday’s 0.6% rally, with the euro slipping to $1.1304. Long-end Treasury yields paused after a recent surge, offering temporary relief to equity traders focused on valuation sensitivity.

Technical Analysis

The SP500 rebounded sharply from the 5855.05 low on 27 May, surging over 80 points to test resistance near 5934.70 in early 28 May trading. The recovery was driven by a series of strong bullish candles with price action lifting above all three moving averages (5, 10, 30), signalling short-term bullish momentum. However, the rally stalled near the prior peak, with price now consolidating just below resistance.

Picture: SP500 rallies from 5855 to 5935 peak before stalling; momentum fades near resistance as bulls pause, as seen on the VT Markets app

The MACD shows waning bullish momentum, with histogram bars shrinking and the MACD line approaching a potential bearish crossover. If support at 5920 holds, a second leg higher is possible. Otherwise, a break below the 30-MA could expose the 5900–5890 region for a retest.

Cautious Forecast

A breakout for the SP500 hinges squarely on Nvidia’s results. Strong numbers may trigger a bullish extension toward 5950–5970, while a miss could see a pullback below 5900. With bond volatility easing and economic data holding firm, short-term downside risk appears limited — but the upside will need a catalyst. Caution remains the dominant tone for now.

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