Insights 
VT 
Key Points:
- S&P 500 closed flat at 6101.90; intraday high at 6103.90.
- Powell stuck to cautious messaging, while Iran-Israel ceasefire eased risk sentiment.
The S&P 500 hovered near its all-time high on Thursday, with futures pointing to another calm session after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell wrapped up his congressional testimony. The index closed marginally lower at 6101.90 on Wednesday after reaching a high of 6103.90. The Nasdaq Composite added 0.31%, while the Dow Jones shed 0.25%.
Markets took confidence from easing war tensions. The ceasefire between Iran and Israel has thus far held, and U.S. officials plan to meet with Tehran in the coming week. This truce helped cap oil prices and bolstered appetite for equities, particularly in tech and consumer sectors.
Technical Analysis
Over the past couple of days, the S&P 500 has rebounded from a dip near 5,920, retracing to the 6,010–6,012 resistance zone. The 5-, 10-, and 30-period MAs remain tightly bunched, suggesting consolidation after a sharp move.
Picture: Muted momentum as SP500 flirts with intraday ceiling, as seen on the VT Markets app
The MACD shows a bullish crossover and climbing histogram—bullish—but it’s still inside neutral territory. This suggests potential for further upside, but the momentum may be waning into resistance. Keep an eye on whether price can decisively close above this 6,012–6,015 zone. A breakout there could target 6,030–6,040; failure to hold near 5,995–6,000 might push it back toward 5,980 or lower.
Powell Balances Tariff Risks and Rate Cut Pressure
Chair Powell maintained a measured tone during his second day of testimony. He acknowledged that the Fed is watching tariff-linked inflation but signalled that policymakers are in no rush to ease rates. This stance came despite increasing political pressure from President Trump and lawmakers to act sooner.
Market participants appear to have priced in this steady-hand approach, with expectations for the first rate cut remaining centred on September. Futures currently imply around 60 basis points of easing by year-end.
With Powell offering no surprises, upcoming data—particularly jobless claims—may set the tone for the next move. A stronger labour print could weigh on rate cut bets and stall the rally, while weaker-than-expected data could push yields lower and extend equity gains modestly.
