Key Points
- S&P 500 futures fell 0.5%, Nasdaq futures dropped 0.6%.
- Trump imposes new 15% tariff after Supreme Court ruling.
- Gold rises 0.6%, dollar weakens, Treasury yields edge lower.
US equity futures declined on Monday as markets reacted to fresh uncertainty around American trade policy. President Donald Trump imposed a new 15% tariff following the Supreme Court’s decision to strike down his sweeping emergency tariffs, reigniting concerns about policy volatility.
S&P 500 futures fell 0.5%, while Nasdaq futures dropped 0.6%, reflecting renewed pressure on risk assets. Traders struggled to assess the scope and duration of the revised tariff structure, with questions remaining over implementation timelines and exemptions.
The Supreme Court had invalidated Trump’s prior emergency-based tariffs on Friday. In response, the administration initially proposed a 10% universal tariff before lifting it to 15% over the weekend.
The rapid sequence of announcements has unsettled markets and revived elements of the “sell America” narrative.
Safe Havens Gain as Dollar Slips
The dollar weakened alongside equities. USDJPY fell 0.21% to 154.76, while EURUSD climbed 0.23% to 1.1807.
Gold climbed 0.6% to $5,134 per ounce, while silver advanced 2% to $86.23, reflecting defensive flows. Treasury yields edged lower, with the US 10-year yield slipping one basis point to 4.077%, signalling mild demand for government bonds.
Meanwhile, the Yale Budget Lab estimated the effective average tariff rate may now stand at 13.7%, down from 16% before the court ruling.
If the new tariffs expire after 150 days under the 1974 Trade Act framework, the average rate could fall further to 9.1%. However, clarity remains limited.
Technical Analysis
The S&P 500 is trading near 6,898, down about 0.2% on the session, as the index consolidates below the recent swing high at 7,017.
The broader trend remains constructive, but price action over the past few weeks reflects a loss of upside momentum and a shift into a range-bound structure.
On the daily chart, price is hovering around the cluster of short-term moving averages, with the 5-day (6,880) and 10-day (6,881) nearly flat and the 20-day (6,908) and 30-day (6,910) sitting just overhead. This tight compression suggests the market is at a decision point.
A sustained break above the 20–30 day zone could re-open the path toward the 7,000–7,050 area, while failure to hold current levels may trigger a deeper pullback.
Immediate support lies around 6,750–6,800, followed by stronger structural support near 6,600, where prior demand emerged.
A decisive move below 6,750 would shift the short-term bias lower, while a breakout above 7,000 would restore bullish momentum and reinforce the longer-term uptrend.
Cautious Outlook
The S&P 500 remains technically stable but vulnerable. Policy uncertainty has reintroduced headline risk, and markets now face a potential cycle of tariff announcements and legal reversals.
If trade ambiguity persists and the dollar continues to weaken, safe-haven demand may remain elevated at the expense of equities.
However, strong corporate earnings, particularly from mega-cap technology names, could stabilise sentiment.
For now, the index holds within a defined range. A decisive break above 7,000 would restore bullish momentum, while sustained weakness below 6,750 would signal a deeper correction. The next directional move will likely depend on clarity around tariff implementation and upcoming earnings catalysts.
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