Key Points

• WTI crude surges to $74.20 after Israeli airstrike on Iranian nuclear targets
• S&P 500 futures drop 1.7%, gold climbs 1.5% to $3,434 amid global risk aversion

Crude oil prices soared on Friday after Israel carried out a preemptive military strike on Iranian nuclear targets, raising fears of broader conflict in the Middle East. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures spiked $6.16 to trade at $74.20 per barrel, while Brent climbed to $75.36. The sharp move marks a nearly 9% daily gain and reflects mounting concerns over supply disruptions from a region responsible for a large share of global oil exports.

The strike, which Israeli officials described as a necessary action to prevent an imminent threat, reportedly killed Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Commander Hossein Salami and potentially several senior Iranian nuclear scientists. In response, Iran declared a state of emergency, with expectations of a retaliatory missile and drone assault heightening market volatility.

The geopolitical shock reverberated across asset classes. U.S. equity futures took a heavy hit, with S&P E-minis down 1.7% and Nasdaq futures off 1.8%. European markets also faced pressure, as STOXX 50 futures tumbled 1.6%. In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei slid 1.3%, South Korea’s KOSPI dropped 1.1%, and the Hang Seng fell 0.8%, snapping a streak of gains that had driven global equities to all-time highs earlier this week.

Energy markets are now recalibrating for potential further supply shocks, especially if Iran chooses to disrupt oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz.

Technical Analysis

WTI has staged a powerful reversal from intraday lows near $67.10, rallying sharply to highs just above $74.60. The steep ascent is underpinned by a strong bullish MACD crossover, with both the faster EMA and histogram gaining positive momentum. Short-term moving averages (5‑ and 10‑period MAs) are angling upward aggressively and have crossed above the 30‑period MA, signaling that buyers are firmly in control on the 15‑minute timeframe. The retest of the $72.15–$72.20 region suggests potential emerging support, while the upper resistance zone near $74.60–$74.80 comes into play as the next hurdle.

Picture: Oil surges to $74.60 resistance, momentum gaining strength, as seen on the VT Markets app

Trading volume (implied by the pace of the move) supports the rally—each push higher has coincided with stronger candles and accelerating MACD momentum, before briefly cooling off on small pullbacks. These consolidations appear healthy, indicating bullish rest periods rather than exhaustion.

This geopolitical flare-up comes at a critical juncture for markets already wrestling with trade uncertainty and softening macroeconomic indicators. U.S. President Donald Trump’s threats to issue unilateral tariff letters in the coming weeks have added further layers of concern, particularly for export-heavy economies.

The sudden escalation in the Middle East adds fuel to what was already a tense environment, potentially derailing the recent rally in global equities and commodity-linked currencies. Oil may continue to trade with a bullish bias so long as headlines signal further escalation. Traders should remain alert to sharp reversals if diplomatic efforts materialise—or if military action broadens unexpectedly. For now, energy and safe havens dominate the day’s flow.

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