Insights 
VT 
Key Points
- WTI traded near $61.21 after rising more than 2% in the prior session
- Brent held around $66, with both benchmarks up 2.7% last week
Oil prices extended gains on Monday following a strong prior session, as global tensions between the United States and Iran kept markets on edge.
The move came despite the resumption of full operations at Kazakhstan’s main export route, underscoring how security concerns continue to outweigh supply-side relief in the near term.
Brent crude futures rose 12 cents, or 0.18%, to $66 a barrel in early Asian trade, while US West Texas Intermediate crude traded at $61.21 a barrel, up 14 cents, or 0.23%.
Both benchmarks closed last week with gains of 2.7%, marking their highest weekly settlement levels since January 14.
The price action reflects a market that remains sensitive to headline risk. Supply flows have improved on paper, yet traders continue to price in disruption risk amid escalating military rhetoric.
A cautious forecast suggests oil may stay supported as long as global uncertainty persists, even if physical supply data improves.
Middle East Tensions Reignite Supply Fears
The latest leg higher in crude followed fresh signals of US military mobilisation.
A US aircraft carrier strike group and other assets are expected to arrive in the Middle East in the coming days, reinforcing concerns around regional stability.
On Thursday, President Donald Trump said the United States had an “armada” heading toward Iran, while adding that he hoped force would not be required.
He also warned Tehran against killing protesters or restarting its nuclear programme. Iranian officials responded sharply, with a senior figure stating on Friday that Iran would treat any attack “as an all-out war against us.”
These exchanges have injected a fresh risk premium into oil prices.
Traders remain wary that even without direct conflict, heightened tensions could disrupt shipping routes or trigger precautionary stockpiling.
If rhetoric continues to intensify, crude prices may remain elevated, even in the absence of immediate supply outages.
Supply Recovery Fails to Cool the Market
On the supply side, Kazakhstan’s Caspian Pipeline Consortium said it returned to full loading capacity at its Black Sea terminal on Sunday, after completing maintenance at one of its three mooring points.
The restart eased concerns about reduced exports from the region, yet had little dampening effect on prices.
This muted response highlights how global risk currently dominates trading behaviour. Markets appear willing to look past incremental supply improvements when broader security risks remain unresolved.
Unless there is a sustained easing in global tension, supply recoveries alone may struggle to push prices materially lower in the short term.
US Weather Disruptions Add Short-Term Support
Further support for crude came from the United States, where crude and natural gas production fell as a winter storm began sweeping across the country on Friday.
The weather event also triggered a spike in spot power prices, signalling short-term strain across parts of the energy system.
While weather-related disruptions are typically temporary, they can tighten prompt supply conditions and add to near-term price support, particularly when inventories are already under scrutiny.
If cold conditions persist longer than expected, energy markets may remain sensitive to further production interruptions.
Technical Analysis
The Crude Oil (CL-OIL) 1-minute chart shows prices currently trading at $61.135, down 0.23% in the session.
Earlier, the price hit a high of $61.280 before easing lower, although still well above the session low of $60.895.
The short-term trend reflects a recent pullback after a strong bullish rally, with price consolidating between the 5-, 10-, and 20-period moving averages.
The MA5 (yellow) remains slightly above the MA10, suggesting potential short-term support near $61.12. A breakout above $61.20–61.28 may restore bullish momentum, while a drop below $61.08 could bring renewed selling pressure.
Volume has tapered off after the initial surge, indicating a pause in conviction. Traders may wait for a clear directional move above resistance or below support before committing.
