Insights 
VT 
Key Points:
- Brent crude dropped 3.76% to $68.79; WTI fell 3.94% to $65.46.
- Prices retreat from five-month highs after Trump announced a ceasefire between Iran and Israel.
Oil prices tumbled on Tuesday as the market reacted to news of a ceasefire agreement between Iran and Israel, orchestrated by U.S. President Donald Trump. The deal appears to have halted a 12-day conflict that had kept traders on edge over potential supply shocks from the region.
Brent crude futures fell $2.69, or 3.76%, to $68.79 a barrel by 0006 GMT, having dropped over 4% earlier and touched their lowest level since 11 June. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude slid $2.70, or 3.94%, to $65.46, marking its weakest point since 9 June. The declines come after both contracts had rallied last week to five-month highs, driven by the U.S. military’s strike on Iranian nuclear facilities.
Technical Analysis
The 15-minute CL-OIL-ECN chart clearly reflects this dramatic unwinding. After peaking at $77.903, prices have plunged more than $13 over a matter of days. Tuesday’s intraday low reached $64.373. Despite a modest rebound, prices remain well below the 30-period moving average, which now acts as short-term resistance.
Picture: Heavy selling in crude triggers technical breakdown below 68.00, as seen on the VT Markets app
The MACD histogram has begun shifting into positive territory, and the MACD line is curling upward—indicating a possible near-term bounce. However, current price action is still caught in a bearish channel and below key resistance at $70.00.
If the ceasefire holds, oil may struggle to regain bullish momentum. Resistance remains firm between $78.40 (October 2024 high) and $80.77 (2025 high). Without a new disruption to supply, the path of least resistance appears downward, with potential support forming around $64.00.
Fundamental Shift in Risk Appetite
Iran, OPEC’s third-largest crude producer, will likely resume full exports, boosting supply and easing pressure on global markets. This sudden drop in cross-border tension strips oil of a major bullish narrative.
Last week’s rally, triggered by fears of regional war, has now reversed almost completely. With both Iran and Israel committing to the ceasefire terms, and the agreement structured in a staggered 24-hour de-escalation, traders are reassessing the probability of future supply disruptions.
A sustained ceasefire could bring WTI into a consolidation zone between $64.00 and $68.00. However, should new tensions arise or the truce break down, oil could rebound sharply. Traders will watch inventory data and OPEC signals closely for fresh direction.
