Insights 
VT 
Key Points
- Nvidia closed at $131.88, recovering slightly from the low of $128.93 after falling from its recent peak of $137.35.
- Bond yields in the U.S. and Japan retreated sharply, reflecting growing debt sustainability fears.
Shares in Nvidia (NVDA) drifted lower on Tuesday after a strong rally to $137.35 lost momentum, closing the session at $131.88. The chart reflects a clear rejection near the highs of $132.61, with the stock consolidating after a steep correction on 22 May. The 15-minute chart highlights choppy price action and a weakening MACD, as momentum cools in the lead-up to the firm’s widely anticipated earnings release on Wednesday.
Markets expect Nvidia to report a 66% jump in Q1 revenue, reflecting the continued demand surge in AI infrastructure and semiconductors. As one of the Nasdaq’s primary drivers, the outcome could tilt broader market sentiment sharply in either direction.
Tariff Reprieve Fuels Initial Gains Across Equities
Nvidia’s early strength followed global equity optimism after President Donald Trump postponed his 50% tariff threat on EU goods until July 9. European markets welcomed the delay, with the Stoxx 600 (SXXP) gaining 0.4% and the UK100 climbing 1%, supported by reopening flows after Monday’s holiday. U.S. equity futures also pointed higher, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 contracts each rising over 1% before the U.S. session.
Despite the broader risk-on tone, Nvidia struggled to maintain its gains amid a shift in focus toward macroeconomic headwinds. A rejection at $137.35 triggered a swift pullback to $128.93, forming a sharp intraday reversal and a warning flag for short-term traders.
Debt Dynamics Shift Bond Yields Sharply
One of the day’s key drivers came from the bond market. U.S. 30-year Treasury yields fell 8 basis points to 4.9572%, marking their largest one-day decline since mid-April. The drop closely mirrored a 20 basis point slump in Japan’s 30-year bond yields, following a Reuters report that Tokyo may reduce long-dated issuance to curb rising yields.
This move in global rates signalled renewed investor caution about sovereign debt loads. Analysts at ING flagged growing unease about fiscal sustainability, with parallels drawn between Japan’s public debt and the U.S. twin deficit dilemma. Deutsche Bank added that markets have grown desensitised to Trump’s trade threats, leading to “fear fatigue” and more muted reactions.
Technical Analysis
NVIDIA surged to a recent high of 137.35 before undergoing a swift correction down to 128.93, where buying interest re-emerged. The bounce since then has been measured, with price struggling to break above the 132.00 level. The MACD histogram has flattened, and signal lines are converging after a bullish crossover, suggesting consolidation rather than a decisive breakout.
Picture: NVIDIA rebounds from 128.93 low but stalls under 132.60; consolidation signals a pause in bullish momentum, as seen on the VT Markets app
Short-term moving averages (5/10-period) are flattening beneath the longer-term 30-period MA, indicating hesitation following the strong upward trend. If bulls can clear 132.60, upside momentum may resume. Conversely, failure to hold above 130.50 could open the door to another test of 129.00 support.
The next major catalyst will be Nvidia’s earnings release. A beat could reignite momentum across the broader tech sector, especially AI-related names. However, a miss or cautious guidance may accelerate the pullback, particularly as month-end flows and inflation data converge.
