Insights 
VT 
Key Points
- Nikkei 225 rises 0.76% to 37,698.65, recovering from a low of 37,297.65.
- Futures covering ahead of SQ fixing on 13 June fuels technical lift.
- USDJPY declines to 143.88, boosting sentiment for exporters.
The Nikkei 225 found its footing in Friday’s session after a choppy week, closing higher by 285 points as traders recalibrated ahead of the June 13 SQ (special quotation) fixing—a key settlement event for index options and futures. Analysts pointed to a wave of futures buying from foreign traders who were likely squaring short positions, providing much-needed support to the cash index.
The weaker yen also played a central role in the Nikkei’s rebound. The dollar gained against the Japanese currency, with USDJPY trading around 143.88. This currency shift improved sentiment for exporters, especially in sectors like autos and technology.
Technical Analysis
The Nikkei 225 rebounded strongly off the 37297 support zone, rallying over 400 points to test the 37748 intraday high. The sharp upside was confirmed by a bullish MACD crossover, with histogram strength supporting sustained momentum through the Tokyo session.
Picture: Nikkei 225 surges from 37300 support as MACD momentum builds; now stalls near key 37750 resistance, as seen on the VT Markets app
The 5- and 10-period moving averages have crossed above the 30-period MA, reinforcing the bullish bias in the short term. Price is consolidating just below 37705 resistance, with the MACD showing early signs of flattening.
Support sits near 37600, with 37480 as secondary defence. A break above 37750 could trigger a retest of the 37800–37820 range.
Looking Ahead
Despite today’s strength, the Nikkei is still headed for a 1% weekly loss, its third consecutive weekly decline. That said, the short-term tone has shifted, with futures activity and technical structure suggesting that dip buyers are emerging ahead of key events next week.
Markets will remain sensitive to the yen, futures flows, and any unexpected policy commentary from the Bank of Japan. With foreign positioning and domestic retail flows diverging, the Nikkei could remain volatile through next Thursday’s SQ fixing.
If the yen continues to weaken and technical resistance at 37,800 breaks, the index may regain momentum toward 38,000. However, a reversal in currency or futures sentiment could trap the index back below 37,300.
