Key Points:
- Nasdaq 100 gains 0.14% to 25,143.20, snapping two-day losing streak
- Chipmakers and AI-linked names lead recovery after prior selloff
- Nikkei tracks U.S. tech rebound, closing 0.3% higher at 49,505.41
- Traders await BOJ rate hike decision on Friday, focus on forward guidance
The Nasdaq 100 climbed 0.14% to 25,143.20 on Wednesday, bouncing from recent lows as AI-linked stocks and chipmakers staged a cautious recovery.
The rebound helped stabilise broader sentiment across Asian equities, including Japan’s Nikkei 225, which rose 0.3%, snapping a two-session losing streak.
Advantest (+1.59%), a key supplier to Nvidia, led Japan’s tech sector higher, while robotics firm Fanuc gained 2.68% and Fast Retailing advanced 0.87%.
The move followed steep declines earlier this week, triggered by valuation concerns and signs of overcrowding in AI exposure, with names like Yaskawa Electric, Fujikura, and Renesas suffering double-digit declines over the past two sessions.
Caution Ahead of BOJ Call
While the Nasdaq’s gains brought welcome relief, risk appetite remains tempered ahead of Friday’s Bank of Japan policy decision, where the central bank is widely expected to raise interest rates by 25bps to 0.75%—a move that would mark Japan’s second hike this year and its first year-end rate lift since 2006.
Markets have fully priced in the hike, shifting focus to Governor Ueda’s commentary on the 2026 tightening path, with speculation growing that rates could reach 1% by midyear.
Analysts also point to growing fiscal risks following PM Takaichi’s expansionary spending plans, which could muddy the BOJ’s longer-term inflation fight.
Technical Analysis
The NAS100 is trading around 25,143, up 0.14%, maintaining a broadly bullish structure but showing signs of slowing momentum after peaking at 26,289.5 in late November.
Price is hovering just under the short-term moving averages, with the 30-day MA offering soft support near 24,900. The slope of the trend remains upward, but recent candles suggest some consolidation is underway.
MACD shows a weakening of bullish momentum, with the signal line catching up to the MACD line, hinting at a possible crossover.
If the index holds above 24,500, the broader uptrend remains intact. However, a break below could trigger deeper pullbacks.
Upside moves will likely need a strong catalyst to break past 26,000 again—possibly a dovish Fed tone or strong tech earnings in early January.
Bottom Line
The Nasdaq’s resilience is helping anchor global tech sentiment, but broader direction will hinge on macro outcomes this week, including Japan’s BOJ decision and incoming U.S. data.
With valuations stretched and AI exuberance facing a reset, traders should brace for rangebound volatility and tactical repositioning into year-end.
