Insights 
VT 
Key Points
- Microsoft traded around 472.39, up 0.83%, as US tech stocks led gains.
- Nasdaq 100 futures rose 1.1%, while S&P 500 futures gained 0.7%.
Microsoft shares traded near 472.39 late Monday, extending gains of 0.83% as traders positioned ahead of a heavy earnings calendar and a Federal Reserve policy update later this week.
The stock has remained resilient despite mixed signals from the broader market, supported by continued strength in large-cap technology names.
This split underlines the market’s preference for growth and technology exposure as earnings approach, with Microsoft sitting at the centre of that trade.
A cautious forecast suggests Microsoft may continue to track broader Nasdaq sentiment in the near term, with directional conviction likely to depend on earnings outcomes rather than macro data alone.
AI Expectations Put Earnings in Sharp Focus
Microsoft is scheduled to report quarterly earnings on Wednesday, alongside Tesla, Meta Platforms, and IBM. These results are widely seen as a key test of whether heavy investment in artificial intelligence is translating into measurable revenue and margin expansion.
So far, optimism around AI-driven growth has helped support valuations across the tech sector. However, expectations are elevated.
Any sign that returns on AI spending are slower than anticipated could prompt sharp repricing, particularly after the recent multi-session advance in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq.
If Microsoft delivers clear evidence of monetisation progress, the stock may retain upside momentum. A more cautious outlook or softer guidance could expose the shares to near-term consolidation.
Trade and Geopolitics Add Background Risk
Late Monday, President Donald Trump threatened to impose 25% tariffs on goods imported from South Korea, citing the country’s failure to codify a trade deal agreed last year.
This development has implications for major South Korean exporters such as Hyundai, Samsung, LG, and SK Hynix, all of which have substantial US exposure.
Markets are also monitoring developments tied to Trump’s renewed push regarding Greenland and the possibility of deeper involvement in Iran, where protests against the Ayatollah Ali Khamenei regime have intensified in recent weeks.
While these issues have not directly weighed on Microsoft, they contribute to a broader environment of uncertainty that could affect risk appetite if tensions escalate.
Technical Analysis
Microsoft (MSFT) closed at 472.39, up +0.83%, after reclaiming ground lost in earlier trading.
The price had dipped to an intraday low of 471.58 before recovering into the close, with the final 10 minutes showing rising volume and bullish momentum.
A local high at 473.20 acted as resistance, but the price is now pressing just below that level.
Short-term moving averages (MA5, MA10, MA20) are converging upward, suggesting a potential continuation if MSFT can clear 472.65–473.20 with conviction.
Watch for volume confirmation in early moves next session to see if bulls take it higher.
Short-Term Outlook
Microsoft enters earnings week in a position of relative strength, supported by sector leadership and sustained investor interest in AI-linked growth.
However, elevated expectations and mixed sentiment across equity markets leave little room for disappointment.
Price action is likely to remain sensitive to earnings commentary and guidance, with broader market direction shaped by Federal Reserve messaging and evolving trade headlines.
Create a live VT Markets account today to access our platform features, including market insights and educational content.
