Key Points
- Gold rose 1.44% to $3,814.85, extending record-breaking highs.
- Traders await U.S. labour data that could shape the Fed’s next policy move.
Gold prices climbed to $3,814.85 on Monday, a gain of 1.44%, as traders continued to buy into the rally driven by expectations of further Federal Reserve easing.
The move reinforced the metal’s position near record highs, with safe-haven flows fuelled by ongoing geopolitical risks and U.S. political tensions.
Our research desk noted that U.S. employment data will be key to gold’s next move. A weaker-than-expected jobs report, paired with stable unemployment, would add weight to the case for additional Fed rate cuts, making gold more attractive in a lower-yield environment.
Uncertainty around President Trump’s tariff policies, coupled with the looming threat of a U.S. government shutdown, has further bolstered demand for gold as traders seek protection from political and economic shocks.
At the same time, momentum traders have joined the rally, with ETF inflows extending the upward pressure.
Technical Analysis
Gold (XAUUSD) surged to $3814.85, gaining 1.44% on the day, marking another fresh high in its strong September rally. This move further cements gold’s breakout above the $3600 psychological level, extending the bullish momentum that has been building since early September.
The price action is well-supported by the 5-, 10-, and 30-day moving averages, all sloping upward and stacked in a bullish alignment.
This shows strong short- and medium-term trend momentum, with buyers continuing to drive the market higher. The breakout also clears the previous resistance around $3750, turning it into new support if prices consolidate.
Momentum signals confirm the bullish trend. The MACD remains firmly above the zero line, with the MACD line widening its gap over the signal line, and the histogram showing consistent green bars.
This indicates strong upside pressure, with no immediate signs of exhaustion.
Looking ahead, the next upside target lies around $3850–$3900, where profit-taking could emerge. On the downside, $3750 is now the first line of support, followed by stronger backing near $3600.
The rally is partly fueled by persistent dollar weakness and broader safe-haven demand, suggesting gold could remain well-bid into October if macro uncertainty persists.
Cautious Forecast
The near-term outlook for gold remains constructive, with traders focused on the upcoming U.S. employment report. Weak labour-market figures could drive a further leg higher towards $3,850–3,900, while stronger data may prompt a pullback as expectations of deeper Fed easing fade.
For now, the path of least resistance is still upwards, but volatility around labour and inflation data could test the conviction of gold bulls.
