Insights 
VT 
Key Points:
- Germany’s Q1 GDP grew 0.2%, matching expectations and led by strong consumption.
- France lagged, growing only 0.1% as exports and investment slowed.
- Spain (0.6%) and Italy (0.3%) outpaced their peers.
- Inflation in France held steady at 0.8%, while German CPI eased.
- The euro is on track for a 5% monthly gain against the dollar.
The EUR/USD pair hovered near the 1.1372 mark, just shy of the $1.14 threshold, as traders digested a mixed bag of Eurozone economic figures. Germany posted a solid 0.2% expansion for Q1, consistent with forecasts, as domestic demand helped offset global headwinds. Spain led the pack with 0.6% quarterly growth, while France underperformed, weighed down by sluggish exports and investment.
Inflation data from both France and regional German states suggest price pressures remain subdued, reinforcing the European Central Bank’s cautious approach heading into summer.
Despite modest growth readings, the euro gained ground this month, rallying more than 5% versus the U.S. dollar, largely due to persistent tariff-related uncertainty in the U.S. and market concern over Trump’s economic leadership.
Technical Analysis
The EUR/USD pair is trading near 1.13725, showing signs of consolidation after testing both support at 1.13548 and intraday resistance at 1.13995. The moving averages (5, 10, 30) remain tightly bunched, reflecting indecision and a lack of dominant trend in the short term. Price remains bound within a narrow range, hinting at market caution.
Picture: Euro remains in consolidation mode between 1.1355 and 1.1400 as traders await directional clarity, as seen on the VT Markets app
On the momentum side, the MACD (12,26,9) is hovering around the zero line, with a slight downward bias suggesting weak bearish momentum. However, histogram bars are shortening, which could point to slowing downside pressure. A break above 1.13995 could trigger a bullish push, while sustained trading below 1.1355 may invite further downside.
Range-bound behavior dominates, with neither bulls nor bears in control at the moment.
Looking Ahead
Markets are entering a pivotal stretch this week as attention turns to key economic indicators on both sides of the Atlantic. In the eurozone, traders are awaiting Tuesday’s ECB Survey on Inflation Expectations for insight into the bloc’s pricing outlook—an important gauge that could influence the European Central Bank’s tone in upcoming meetings.
The outcome of these releases will likely shape the next directional move in EUR/USD, particularly as traders continue reassessing dollar exposure amid shifting U.S. trade and monetary dynamics.
