Insights 
VT 
Key Points:
- USDX trades at 99.18, consolidating gains before U.S. economic releases.
- Commerzbank warns weak data may increase pressure on Trump to reverse tariffs.
- ADP payrolls and Q1 GDP reports due later today.
- Market sentiment remains cautious amid trade uncertainty and political reversals.
The U.S. dollar index (USDX) held steady around the 99.18 level on Tuesday, showing resilience in the face of mounting expectations that weak economic data could force a shift in trade policy. The index posted a daily high of 99.221 before retreating slightly in later trade.
According to a note from Commerzbank’s Thu Lan Nguyen, disappointing U.S. figures may prompt the White House to scale back tariffs further. President Donald Trump has already shown signs of flexibility, temporarily pausing several reciprocal tariffs following market sell-offs earlier this quarter.
Technical Analysis
The U.S. Dollar Index (USDX) is staging a moderate recovery after bouncing off the 98.644 support level. The price has now climbed to 99.181, testing resistance around the 99.226 area. Short-term moving averages (5, 10, 30) have begun to slope upward and show a bullish alignment, suggesting momentum is tilting in favor of buyers.
Picture: Dollar regains traction above 99.00 as bullish momentum firms, testing key resistance near 99.23, seen on the VT Markets app
The MACD (12,26,9) confirms this shift, with a bullish crossover and a growing positive histogram. While the rally remains modest, continued strength above the 99.00 psychological level could pave the way for a retest of the 99.45–99.50 region.
Short-term bias has flipped bullish, but watch for consolidation if price stalls at the resistance band.
Looking Ahead
Traders expect these figures to provide insight into whether economic conditions could deteriorate fast enough to provoke a more dovish stance from the administration or the Federal Reserve. A sharp miss on either front may lend credence to the theory that Trump could walk back some of his trade policies to cushion the economy and appease markets.
