Insights 
VT 
Key Points
- WTI crude holds above $61.70 after rebounding from a low of $60.03, with session highs capped at $62.13.
- President Trump’s EU trade deadline extension and a drop in active U.S. rigs support prices, but OPEC+ supply decisions could pressure the rally.
Crude oil markets opened the week on a firmer footing as investors reacted to fresh trade policy headlines and shifting expectations around global supply. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude gained 0.39% to $61.77 a barrel by 04:33 GMT, holding steady after a volatile session that saw prices slide to $60.03 before rebounding. Brent crude rose 26 cents, or 0.4%, to $65.04.
President Donald Trump extended the EU trade deadline to 9 July, giving the bloc more time to negotiate a deal and reducing near-term risk of retaliatory tariffs. The news prompted a rally in U.S. equity futures and crude prices in early trade. IG Markets analyst Tony Sycamore said the move provided “a nice push higher” across risk-sensitive assets, including oil.
However, traders remain wary. While the delay reduces short-term trade friction, it doesn’t eliminate broader uncertainty. Markets are still digesting last week’s passage of Trump’s tax-and-spending bill, projected to add $3.8 trillion to the U.S. debt over the next decade. That bill also includes cuts to green energy subsidies, which has weighed on solar energy equities.
OPEC+ Output Decisions Loom
Crude gains were also capped by growing expectations that the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) could raise output again. The alliance is considering lifting July production targets by another 411,000 barrels per day (bpd). Reuters recently reported that the group may unwind the rest of its 2.2 million bpd voluntary production cuts by October. So far, OPEC+ has raised targets by about 1 million bpd across April, May, and June.
Warren Patterson, head of commodities strategy at ING, noted that these decisions could keep the market “well supplied” throughout the second half of 2025. DBS Bank’s Suvro Sarkar added that oil remains under pressure from OPEC+’s output strategy and a “mini oil price war” brewing beneath the surface.
Technical Analysis
Crude oil prices staged a dramatic rebound from the $60.03 low, surging past the psychological $62.00 mark before settling into a consolidation zone. The move higher was accompanied by a strong MACD crossover and rising histogram bars, reflecting accelerating bullish momentum. However, the rally stalled at $62.13, forming a near-term resistance that has since capped upside progress.
Picture: Oil bounces off $60.03 low, tests $62.13 resistance; momentum cooling as price consolidates below key breakout, as seen on the VT Markets app
Price has now flattened between $61.50–$61.75, with the MACD histogram declining steadily, suggesting waning momentum. The moving averages have also begun to tighten, indicating a range-bound structure. For bulls to regain control, a breakout above $62.13 is needed. On the downside, watch the $61.06 support, which was tested previously and may act as a floor if selling resumes.
The latest Baker Hughes rig count offered some support. U.S. firms cut the number of operating oil rigs by 8 last week, bringing the total to 465—its lowest since November 2021. This suggests producers are hesitating to expand supply aggressively at current prices, offering some downside protection.
Still, the rebound lacked conviction. After peaking at $62.13, WTI slipped back into a range near the 30-period moving average. MACD histogram bars have flattened, and the signal line shows a bearish crossover beginning to fade.
Cautious Outlook
Oil remains caught between bullish headlines and bearish supply risks. Should prices breach $62.13 with strong volume, bulls could target $63.00. However, if support at $61.50 fails, the next key level lies at $61.068. The $60.03 low remains the immediate downside marker.
Any new developments in OPEC+ deliberations or a breakdown in trade talks could swiftly shift sentiment. Traders should prepare for choppy price action ahead of the bloc’s next supply meeting and remain alert to updates from Washington and Brussels.
