Insights 
VT 
Key Point
- Chile’s Cochilco raised its 2025 price forecast to $4.45 per pound and $4.55 for 2026, up from $4.30 previously.
- LME three-month copper inched up 0.07% to $10,760.50 a ton, while Shanghai copper futures gained 0.14% to 86,080 yuan ($12,099.23).
Copper prices edged higher after Cochilco, Chile’s state copper commission, lifted its outlook for 2025 and 2026, signalling expectations of tighter supply amid production challenges in the world’s largest producer.
The commission now expects copper to average $4.45 per pound in 2025 and $4.55 in 2026, citing disruptions to output and sustained demand from the green transition sector.
The upward revision reinforced bullish sentiment across global metals markets, though the price reaction was restrained by broader macroeconomic uncertainty.
Fed Uncertainty Caps Gains
The rally in copper was tempered by caution ahead of the Federal Reserve’s December meeting, with markets pricing a roughly 47% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut, down from 90% a month earlier.
Minutes from the Fed’s latest meeting revealed a divided stance among policymakers, fuelling speculation that the central bank may keep rates on hold longer than anticipated.
A stronger US dollar this week has also limited upside momentum for commodities priced in greenbacks.
China Demand Remains Weak
Weaker import data from China, the world’s largest copper consumer, also curbed enthusiasm. The country imported 279,944 tons of copper cathodes in October, marking a 22.1% year-on-year and 15.65% month-on-month decline.
The data underscored slowing industrial activity despite Beijing’s fiscal stimulus efforts, and traders remain wary that demand recovery could be gradual into early 2026.
Technical Analysis
Copper futures traded around $4.98 per pound, down 0.56% intraday. Prices remain range-bound between $4.85 support and $5.10 resistance, with the MACD signalling a mild bearish divergence as momentum cools.
The broader trend remains constructive so long as copper holds above its 50-day moving average near $4.90, though a break below this level could expose the $4.75 area next.
Cautious Forecast
While supply constraints in Chile and optimism around industrial demand support copper’s long-term outlook, the short-term trajectory remains tied to Fed policy and Chinese demand recovery.
Traders are likely to stay cautious ahead of Thursday’s US jobs data, which could shift expectations for December’s policy decision and with it, the next move for the red metal.
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