Key Points

• Bitcoin trades at $108,320 after rebounding from $101,270; short-term holders have shed 833,000 BTC in the past month.
• Technical breakout and on-chain signals suggest bullish momentum, but long-term holder exits could cap upside.

Bitcoin has pulled back from the edge after a sharp bout of selling pressure took it dangerously close to breaching the $100,000 threshold. The leading cryptocurrency now trades around $108,320, a 1.9% gain in the last 24 hours. This recovery follows a steep drop that touched $101,270, and while it may suggest stabilisation, not all metrics point to clear skies ahead.

Short-term holders (STHs), typically defined as those holding BTC for less than 155 days, have shown signs of eroding confidence. Over the past month, this cohort recorded a net position change of -833,000 BTC. This selling pressure mirrors what occurred during the April sell-off, when STH net position change hit -977,000 BTC, contributing to a temporary low near $74,508. These holders tend to react quickly to volatility and have become increasingly jumpy since Bitcoin’s failure to hold its all-time high of $111,814.

Technical Analysis

Despite this, technical signals are painting a more hopeful picture. Bitcoin has broken above the key resistance at $106,600, with several analysts calling for potential upside targets near $108,300 and $110,000 if momentum holds.

Picture: BTCO tests resistance after sharp bounce from weekly lows, as seen on the VT Markets app

The MACD on the 15-minute chart has moved into bullish territory, with histogram bars remaining green and the signal line curving upward. Price action shows higher lows building, and the reclaiming of the 5, 10, and 30-period moving averages adds structure to the bounce.

Yet, beneath the surface, cracks remain. Data shows long-term holders are starting to trim exposure. This trend, paired with a rising presence of retail investors, adds the risk of whipsaw moves if sentiment flips. While the current bounce appears orderly, it remains vulnerable to a shift in macro tone or geopolitical headlines, particularly with the Federal Reserve and regulatory pressures still in play.

For now, the technical structure leans bullish, with $110,000 as the next target and $106,600 acting as short-term support. A sustained break below that level would likely test $103,000 again, and failure there could reopen the path to sub-$100K territory. Until then, the market remains delicately balanced between renewed optimism and structural fragility.

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