Daily market analysis

May 20, 2021

Daily Position Report

PNL Changed (System Time 5/19 00:00- 5/19 23:50) Total PNL During the Day

Clients’ gains were around 2.437 M ten mins ahead of the EOD.

Intraday Client PNL

Clients Profit

Clients Loss

Client Net Position

BOOK Exposure & Top PNL at EOD

Market Focus

U.S. stocks closed mixed and Treasury yields rose as minutes showed Federal Reserve officials were cautiously optimistic about the U.S. recovery at their April meeting, with some signaling they’d be open “at some point” to discussing scaling back the central bank’s massive bond purchases.

The S&P 500 fell for a third day, and 10-year Treasury yields jumped to session highs following the release. Energy and raw-material stocks fell the most as commodities prices tumbled amid mounting concern about inflation and potential curbs on monetary stimulus. The Nasdaq 100 notched a small advance, boosted by late-day gains in tech stocks including Facebook Inc. and Alphabet Inc.

At its worst moment, Bitcoin dropped about 30% to within a whisker of $30,000. It pared that decline to about 8% by 4 p.m. New York time. Other currencies held double-digit percentage losses, pressured in part by a Tuesday statement from the People’s Bank of China reiterating that digital tokens can’t be used as a form of payment.

Stocks have lost steam in recent sessions, with pricier sectors such as technology tumbling on worries about inflation and a Covid-19 resurgence in some countries. While policymakers have signaled, they intend to maintain an accommodative stance for some time to come, traders will parse the Fed’s minutes for clues about the outlook. The Bloomberg Commodity Index, which touched a nine-year high last week, fell for a second day as oil, copper, soybeans and almost every other futures contract linked to industrial and agricultural staples retreated.

Main Pairs Movement:

A gauge of the dollar’s strength halted a four-day loss as traders awaited minutes of the Federal Reserve’s April meeting for clues on its next policy move.

The euro climbed to the highest since January and funds already long the currency left buy stops above the Feb. 25 high of 1.2243 to add to their positions, traders said. USD/JPY bounced off residual buy orders carried over from the New York session above 108.80, according to other traders.

The Norwegian krone and the euro gained the most among Group-of-10 currencies while the New Zealand dollar fell. USD/NOK dropped 0.2% to 8.2118; NZD/USD retreated 0.3% to 0.7228.

Technical Analysis:

EURUSD (4 hour Chart)

Euro fiber sharply slipped with the initial market reaction to FOMC Minute, fell from day high at 1.2245 level to nearly day lowest spot, trading at 1.2173 as of writing. FOMC’s April meeting showed some policymakers are concerned about rising inflation in near term, provide a boost to the greenback. For technical aspect, RSI indicator retreat from overbought territory that shows 51 figures, which suggest a neutral momentum for short run. On average price view, 15-long SMA indicator is ongoing ascending trend in day market after it euro aimed to higher stack and 60-long SMA retained upside slope.

At the moment, we expect market will remain bull movement in further if euro fiber could hold above 1.2151 level. Meawhile, it also focus on ECB President Largarde speaking tomorrow that could give market a direction and policymaker favor for upcoming euro movement. Moreover, euro need to be defend the 50 level of RSI indicator to ensure that market remain long-side momentum.

Resistance: 1.22

Support: 1.2151, 1.2106, 1.207

GBPUSD (4 Hour Chart)

Sterling retreated from perch to fresh lows after Fed’s hawkish statement in FOMC minute while down nearly .47% in the day and traveled to day low bound, trading at 1.4116 as of writing. Some officials saw taper talk starting at upcoming meeting and schedule but note that the economy still have a gap from they goals. For RSI side, indicator shows 45 figures after plummet, suggesting a slightly-bear market ahead. On the other hands, 15-long SMA indicator start turn flat move after overwhelming and 60-long SMA indicator remaining a ascending movement.

As price action demonstrate, it seems fail to defend the 1.42 level as dollar strong boost up, moreover, sterling sentiment has slipped to bearish side. Therefore, we need to see the first support level could be defended. If market momentum could shoaring up the first support level, we expect it could roam between first resistance and support level. If market consecutive fell, we expect market would test the psychological suppport level at 1.4.

Resistance: 1.42

Support: 1.3959, 1.4, 1.4108

XAUUSD (4 Hour Chart)

Gold traveled with sightly change in the day market after dollar index jumped higher over 90 which aimed to FOMC hawkish meeting result that scared market, while U.S. 10 years Treasuries yield flare up to nearly months high. On the other hands, crytocurrencies market went extremely volatility due to regulatory worry which lead market transfer fund to gold market with risk-off flow. For moving average side, 15-long SMA indicator retained it slope to upside trend and 60-long SMAs indicator retaining it north side momentum. For RSI side, inidcator shows 59 figures after it touch once over bought territory, suggesting slightly-bull market move at current stage.

Overall, we see gold seems steady above downside trend after choppy move in the day market. For long perspective, we still believe downside trend will be a pivotal support level. Furthernore, we hope the 1850 level could firmly defend if any upwind move.

Resistance: 1900

Support: 1850, 1812.88, 1800, 1763.837

Economic Data