AUD/USD rebounded to around 0.6900 on Monday after sliding to 0.6855 on Friday, close to the March low at 0.6834, but the pair remains under pressure after one of its weakest weeks in recent months. The backdrop includes a less hawkish-than-expected message from the Reserve Bank of Australia following last week’s tightening, firm US data and weaker risk appetite, while markets wait for fresh US releases that could reinforce expectations of further Federal Reserve rate rises.
Central Bank Decisions and Economic Indicators
The RBA lifted its benchmark rate by 25 bps to 4.85%, the highest since 2008, on a 6–3 vote, yet the currency reaction was negative as future policy guidance stayed non-committal. In the US, October Nonfarm Payrolls rose 165K versus 65K expected, and the jobless rate edged down to 4.1% from 4.2%, with CME FedWatch implying nearly an 80% chance of a 25-bp hike in December; attention now turns to Tuesday’s CPI and Friday’s PPI. China’s October CPI rose 0.7% YoY versus 0.9% previously and 0.8% expected, while PPI accelerated to 5.7% against 5.3% forecasts, offering limited relief.
Technical Analysis and Key Levels
Technically, AUD/USD has slipped below the 100-day and 200-day SMAs at 0.7028 and 0.7057; support sits at 0.6894, then 0.6855 and 0.6834, with resistance at 0.7068.
