Statistics Canada publishes October’s Labour Force Survey on Friday at 13:30 GMT, with the unemployment rate expected to hold at 6.5% and hires forecast at about 13.6K after September’s 68.3K fall. The data land after nearly 110K jobs were shed over August and September, and after the Bank of Canada raised its benchmark rate on October 28 for the first time in more than three years. Markets are weighing whether hiring is stabilising while US tariffs continue to cloud prospects for trade-sensitive sectors, even as more than 80% of Canadian exports to the US still move duty-free under the USMCA.
Labour Market Outlook and Key Focus Areas
Separate projections look for 15K jobs and a dip in unemployment to 6.4%, while attention also falls on manufacturing, full-time roles, wage growth and the participation rate.
USD/CAD Technicals and Market Reaction
USD/CAD was trading near 1.4070, with price above the 100-period and 200-period SMAs clustered just under 1.4000; the RSI (14) stood near 82. A break above 1.4070 points to 1.4115, while support is seen around 1.4000, then 1.3993 and 1.3981, with 1.3930 lower. The simultaneous US jobs release could add volatility.
