The Czech National Bank is expected to raise rates by 25bp to 4.00% at next week’s meeting, following confirmation from board member Jakub Seidler that he intends to back a hike. The bank has entered its blackout period as local markets reopen after a public holiday. With trading resuming, Czech rates are expected to catch up with Polish zloty rates, implying an upward move of roughly 8bp.
Risk Sentiment And Regional Currency Stabilisation
Near-term direction for Central and Eastern European FX is still being shaped by broader risk sentiment and energy pricing. A softer EUR/USD alongside firmer equities is seen as offering scope for a brief stabilisation in regional currencies after the Federal Reserve meeting delivered limited spillover.
Medium-Term Pressure From Energy Markets
Medium-term pressure persists, however, as TTF gas prices moved above €100, reinforcing downside risks and leaving the broader bearish stance on CEE currencies unchanged.
