The Bank of Canada is expected to lift its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 2.50% on Wednesday, as inflation remains sticky even while parts of the economy soften. In a Reuters poll, 19 of 34 economists look for an increase, which would be the first since July 2023, but the data flow has left the outcome finely balanced. CPI rose 3.1% year on year in September from 3% in August, driven by energy, while underlying measures eased. Governor Tiff Macklem has warned that extended oil-price gains could feed into broader prices.
Weaker Labour Market Data
Labour-market readings, however, have weakened: employment fell by 68.3K in September versus expectations for a 7K rise, following a 41.7K drop in August, and the jobless rate edged up to 6.5% from 6.4%. The decision lands at 13:45 GMT with the Monetary Policy Report, followed by Macklem’s 14:30 GMT press conference. USD/CAD is capped below 1.4055 and the 200-period SMA at 1.4108, with the 100-period SMA at 1.4153, while RSI (14) is 54.9; support levels sit at 1.3969 and 1.3910, with resistance also at 1.4155.
