The Indian Rupee gave up early gains and slipped marginally against the US Dollar, pushing USD/INR towards 95.16 as oil rebounded and markets stayed cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy decision. In early trade, the MCX Crude Oil contract expiring 19 November rose 1.82% to Rs 9,671, near a recent high of Rs 9,828, a move that tends to weigh on import-dependent currencies. Oil strengthened after Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis said they fired a ballistic missile at Saudi Arabia’s Ras Tanura refinery, adding to supply-risk concerns. Firmer crude also supported US rates, with the 10-year Treasury yield up 0.46% to about 5.02%.
Federal Reserve Policy Outlook
The Fed is expected to hold rates at 3.75%–4.00%, according to CME FedWatch, after a quarter-point rise in September and guidance for at least one more increase this year via the dot plot. Policy tone indicators also firmed: the FXS Speechtracker score for Waller was 8/10 versus a 7.2/10 historical average, while the FXS Fed Sentiment Index rose 0.42 to 138.34. Technically, USD/INR traded at 95.1355, below the 20-period EMA at 95.3253, with RSI near 44.
