Economists at a major securities firm forecast the US headline CPI will rise 0.30% month-on-month in October 2026, easing from September’s 0.65% increase, while gasoline and food continue to add upward pressure. On the non-seasonally adjusted measure, they point to a CPI index level of 337.316, compared with a market fixing of 337.250. The projection is presented as preliminary, with scope for revision as more data emerges, particularly in volatile areas such as petrol prices, hotel rates and airfares.
Core Inflation and Goods Price Dynamics
Core CPI is expected to increase 0.21% month-on-month, down from 0.33% in September, and the same profile is seen as consistent with a 0.24% rise in core PCE. Core goods inflation is described as losing momentum due to falling used vehicle prices and cooling in apparel, recreation and IT goods, partly offset by firmer household goods prices.
Services Inflation Trends
Services inflation is expected to mean-revert, with shelter easing as OER reverses after a prior surge, while transportation and recreation services are also projected to cool.
