The video applies Elliott Wave alongside Volume Profile to interpret how price reacts at liquidity zones across S&P futures, AUD/USD and oil. In S&P futures, Wave 2 is framed as a double combination, with a move back towards the point of control after a sell-off failed to extend lower and reversed into value. Price is then monitored for a break of the prior high, where the outcome depends on price behaviour: decisive follow-through would support a Wave 3 scenario, while “big volume, low result” and rejection would imply a return to the range and potentially the lows.
For AUD/USD, the macro backdrop discussed is US dollar strength alongside rising yields, including the 10-year, while the technical focus is on validating a zigzag A-B-C. The approach watches how price behaves as it trades back towards the top of Wave A: shallow, laboured candles are treated as consistent with a Wave C that later rolls over into a fresh low, whereas a fast slice through the zone is classified as liquidity withdrawal and a reason to stand aside. In oil, higher timeframes are described as quiet, so analysis shifts to the 5-minute chart to map Wave 1 and a developing Wave 2 ABC, with a bullish bias towards 92 and scope to test highs, guided by Wyckoff’s effort-versus-result at each level.
S&P 500 Futures And AUD/USD: Volatility, Wave Patterns, And Dollar Pressure
We are closely watching the S&P 500 futures as they attempt to break out of their recent consolidation pattern. Historically, October is known for turning-point volatility, with the index experiencing an average annualized volatility increase of nearly 5% during this month. As we monitor the current point of control, we must assess the quality of any breakout: a decisive push past key resistance levels will signal a strong Wave 3, while a high-volume, low-progress rejection could quickly drag us back to recent lows.
The strength of the US dollar continues to pressure the Australian dollar, heavily supported by the rising US 10-year Treasury yield, which recently climbed back toward key multi-month highs. For AUD/USD, we are anticipating a zigzag pattern where the price retraces to test the top of Wave A before rejecting. If the exchange rate approaches this level with small, struggling candles, we will look to short the market in anticipation of a fresh low. However, if a sudden surge bypasses this zone entirely, we must stand aside and recognize it as a liquidity withdrawal rather than a tradeable rejection.
Crude Oil: Range-Bound Accumulation And The Case For A Spring-Loaded Move
Meanwhile, crude oil has settled into a tight sideways range, waiting for a catalyst to disrupt the temporary lull in global energy headlines. Despite the quiet environment, underlying volume profiles show heavy accumulation by major market participants at lower price boundaries, suggesting a spring-loaded move is building. We are keeping a bullish bias with a target toward the $92 per barrel mark, a level that has historically acted as a major psychological pivot. Our plan is to wait for the lower-timeframe corrective sequence to finish before positioning for the next major leg up.
